Science, Environment and Development Group

Lemos, Maria Carmen. "Policy and Socioeconomic Impacts of Seasonal Climate Forecast:  Can Science Save Northeast Brazil?" PowerPoint presentation from Knowledge for Development Seminar, 2 October 2003, Center for International Development, Harvard University.
 

Background documents:

Lemos, Maria Carmen, Timothy J. Finan, Roger W. Fox, Donald R. Nelson, and Joanna Tucker. 2002. "The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil." Climatic Change 55: 479-501.

This paper is an accounting of the interaction of ENSO forecasting and policymaking in an area of Brazil threatened by drought during ENSO events. The authors provide analyses of the interaction of developing forecast skill, political manipulation, and the mismatch between forecast products and end-users needs. Despite these pitfalls, the authors outline what mechanisms encourage the possibility of learning and adaptation of forecasting efforts for the region.

Further readings:

Cash, David W., Jonathan C. Borck, and Anthony G. Patt. (In review). "Countering the 'Loading Dock' Approach to Linking Science and Decision Making:  A Comparative Analysis of ENSO Forecasting Systems." Science, Technology & Human Values, manuscript of 9 July 2003.

In this paper, the authors provide a comparative analysis of southern African and Pacific ENSO forecasting systems, exploring the role that co-production of forecasts takes in effective systems. A critical component of such co-production seems to be managing the boundaries between science and policy, across disciplines, across scale, and across knowledges to create information that is salient, credible, and legitimate to multiple audiences. This research suggests institutional mechanisms that appear to be useful in managing such boundaries, including: mechanisms for structuring convening, translation, collaboration and mediation functions.

Broad, Kenneth, Alexander S. P. Pfaff, and Michael H. Glantz. 2002. "Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-To-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Nino 1997-98." Climatic Change 54: 415-438.

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, we identify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such as limited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) the need for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations. We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.

Glantz, Michael H., ed. 2001. "Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Nino." Executive Summary. Toyko, Japan: United Nations University Press,  http://www.unu.edu/env/govern/ElNIno/ElNinoBook.html.

This assessment reviews forecasts and societal impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño. Underlying this review is a look at the climate-related early warning and natural disaster preparedness systems in a number of countries with the objective of improving their El Niño and other climate-related coping mechanisms. The following locations are targeted in this study: Bangladesh, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Mozambique, Panama Canal, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, and Vietnam. Based on the lessons drawn from these studies, key research and policy needs are identified in this book. Importantly, several ideas are presented for developing regional and national natural disaster preparedness plans for coping with the impacts El Niño Southern Oscillation's warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events.

Orlove, Benjamin S., and Joshua L. Tosteson. 1999. "The Application of Seasonal to Interannual Climate Forecasts Based on El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events:  Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, Peru, and Zimbabwe." Working Paper WP99-3-Orlove. Berkeley, CA: Institute of International Studies, Berkeley Workshop on Environmental Politics, http://repositories.cdlib.org/iis/bwep/WP99-3-Orlove.  

In this paper the authors present case studies of the efforts of five nations, Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, Peru, and Zimbabwe, to use climate forecasts based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system to plan in advance of anticipated anomalous climatic states. We treat the variable use of climate forecasts among these nations as a problem of fit between the nature of ENSO, a persistent variability in the ocean atmosphere system of the tropical Pacific which produces climate variability at local and regional scales around the world, and the human institutions and actors that make and use the forecasts. The examination of patterns of use of forecasts indicates constraints and suggests opportunities for the useful application of climate forecasts in the future.

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