Strategic Approaches to Third-Party Intervention:

Theory and Application to U.S. Policy in Iraq (2008).

Abstract: This paper considers a model of strategic interaction in which a third party intervenes on behalf of a government in its conflict with insurgents. We examine the issue of whether it is better for the intervenor to adopt an input-based strategy (i.e., specify the total resources it will spend) or an outcome-based strategy (i.e., specify the goal that it will achieve). We show that outcome-based strategies are better for the intervenor than input-based ones if and only if in the absence of intervention the insurgents are stronger than the government. A system of benchmarks that are tied to the efforts of both parties outperforms both input-based and outcome-based strategies. Lessons from the theory are applied to U.S. strategy in Iraq.

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