Wakeup Call
Inaction in face of global warming

KENNEDY SCHOOL ECONOMIST Richard Zeckhauser studies decisionmaking in the face of uncertain risks. Natural disaster planning offers a case in point, with global warming being possibly the biggest disaster of all. If the past is any guide, he says, we're not up to the
challenge.

>>> Why are you so pessimistic?
It's almost impossible for societies to respond to threats that are remote in time, distance, or probability. If you look at Katrina, most of the blame focuses on actions taken right before the hurricane struck. But many things we did a long time before -- that had nothing to do with the levees being strong enough -- compounded the problem. For example, every year New Orleans loses coastal wetlands the size of Manhattan that protect against storm surges. Forty years ago, we built a giant canal called the Mississippi Gulf Outlet that inadvertently brought floodwaters into the city.

>>> Why do we underestimate disaster consequences?
In considering "probability distributions," we normally think of a bell curve. The mean height for American men is 5'10". You occasionally meet somebody 7 feet tall but never 12 feet tall. When it comes to natural disasters, there are many 12-feet tall men. The worst disaster can be 10 times worse than the second worst disaster. That's why loss predictions for extreme events are probably underestimates.

>>> How have we dealt with global warming so far?
Despite all the breast-beating, there's not much going on in the United States or even in Europe, where they claim to be doing so much. Many people now talk about "climate change" instead of "global warming," owing to uncertainties over what will happen. People don't respond well to uncertainties.

>>> How can we spur some action?
It usually takes what I call "alarm clock events" to wake us up. Unfortunately, a lot of people might have to die -- in massive heat waves or in warming-enhanced floods -- before we feel compelled to fashion a response.

>>> What should we do in the meantime?
We should prepare contingency plans so that when something like this happens, we'll react sensibly rather than nonsensically. I don't know what the solution is. But since research is cheap, let's try 20 different things. If we're lucky, one or two of them will work. -- SN