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CONVERSATION

The Political Landscape:
One Year Before the Election

Donald Kellermann
Times Mirror Center for the People and the Press

Monday, November 13, 1995

Don Kellermann, a recent fellow at the Kennedy School's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy, gave the following presentation as part of the Shorenstein Center's Research Roundtable Series. Kellermann accompanied his presentation with selected tables and charts from Voter Anxiety Dividing GOP; Energized Democrats Backing Clinton Times Mirror Center for The People and The Press, News Release, Tuesday November 14, 1995, A.M. For further information contact The Times Mirror Center, 1875 Eye Street, N.W., Suite 1110, Washington, D.C. 20006, 202/293-3126.

Copyright ©1995 Don Kellermann unless otherwise stated. Used with permission.

CONTENTS


THEME KEY
Don Kellermann
Times Mirror Center
Candidates ElectorateIssues
President's Approval

Predicting Election '96		 All sections.
See Contents above.		 About the Typology

The Mood of the Electorate

Predicting Election '96

Top Five Sources of Dissatisfaction

Top Five Issues Public Wants Candidates to Discuss
Candidates ElectorateIssues

Prologue

About the Times-Mirror Typology

The Times Mirror Center in 1987 developed a unique voter classification system based on three major elements-party affiliation, political participation, and personal values and attitudes -and using the statistical technique called "cluster analysis." The new typology in 1995 is built on the same foundation, with minor modifications.

Nine values and attitudes were measured, including attitudes toward government, environmentalism, business, social welfare, social policy issues, religion, race relations, the military, and feelings of political alienation.

The analysis segmented the American public into ten groups-three Republican, four Democrat, and three in between:

The Divided Right

Enterprisers (13% of adult population):
Affluent, well-educated, and predominantly white. This classic Republican group is mainly characterized as pro-business, anti-government, anti-social welfare.
Moralists (16%):
Middle-aged, middle-income, predominantly white, religious (more than half are Evangelicals). This core Republican group is also socially intolerant and anti-social welfare, militaristic, anti-big business and anti-big government. Former Democrats drawn to the GOP's religious and cultural conservatism have increased its size substantially since 1987.
Libertarians (8%):
Highly-educated, affluent, predominately white male. This group has Republican lineage but is uncomfortable with today's GOP, particularly its religious right. Probusiness, anti-government, anti-social welfare but highly tolerant, very low on religious faith, cynical about politicians.

The Detached Center

New Economy Independents (13%):
Average income, young to middle aged, mostly female. This group is unanchored in either party and many supported Perot in 1992. It has many conflicting values: strongly environmentalist but not believers in government regulation; pro-social welfare but not very sympathetic to blacks; inclined to fundamental religious beliefs but highly tolerant of homosexuals.
Bystanders (8%):
Very young, poorly educated, with low income. This group opts out of the political process or are not eligible to vote (high Hispanic concentration). Slightly more male than female, its only claimed commitment is to environmentalism.
The Embittered (9%):
Low income, low education, middle-aged. One in five of this group are black, four in ten have children under 18. Old ties to Democrats have eroded but the Embittered feel unwelcome in the GOP. They distrust government, politicians, corporations. They are religious and socially intolerant. They strongly blame discrimination for lack of black progress, but are not strongly in favor of social welfare programs.

The "Not So" Left

Seculars (8%):
Highly educated, sophisticated, affluent, mostly white baby boomers and Generation X. The most socially tolerant group, driven by social issues, it is the only one to embrace the "liberal" label. Very low in religious faith. Highly pro-environment, moderately pro-government, distrusting of business. Drifting from the Democrats but not attracted to Republicans.
New Democrats (12%):
Mostly female, average income and education, as many white Evangelical Protestants as white Catholics. Religious but not intolerant, more pro-business than other Democratic groups, they reject discrimination as a major barrier to black progress, are progovernment and environmentalist.
New Dealers (8%):
One of the two oldest groups in the typology (one in four over 65), average education and low income. Once part of FDR's coalition, beneficiary of government programs, this group is now turned off by politics. Strongly conservative on race and social welfare, strong on religion, moderate on social tolerance, pro-America, distrusts politicians and business.
Partisan Poor (5%):
Very poor (38% with household income under $20,000 a year), disadvantaged, about four in ten in the south. This oldest typology group, rooted in New Deal coalition, believes more government spending on the poor is needed. More than one-third are nonwhites. Very religious and socially intolerant.
.
[See Table: The Times Mirror Typology (as percent of population)]
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

The Presentation

The Mood of the Electorate

I will begin by saying that anxiety and confusion and not anger shape the views and the feelings of the American public as we go into the election year. The voters are troubled by a wide variety of issues and we will get to them. Economic unease dominates their concerns and their concerns are heavy, very heavy.

Public concerns


I will give you some numbers, just to hold your interest. The issues that most trouble the electorate right now are: health care -- 21%, crime -- 20% and politics as usual in Washington -- 17%.

Interestingly, the economy and the so-called moral crisis come next each at 15%. I say interestingly because the economy, very recently, was by far the highest rated. It was 40%, and it has stayed at that number for a long time. It is down to 13% but there is a paradox here, because when you would ask people about the things that concern them, those things are all economic.
Public concerns: 1988-1995.
These are a series of trends on the same questions that we asked late this October. I'll offer just a few comments: [See Table: Public Concerns, 1988-1995]

Affording health care. In 1994, when we asked this question, some 50% said they were very concerned about being able to afford health care. Two years later into the Republican revolution, 66%. That is a16-point spike in those that say they are very concerned about health care.

Kids' job opportunities, in other words, a decent life for one's children. In 1994 -- 50% said they were concerned about job opportunities for their children. In 1995 about 60%.

On being a victim of crime. The question as I recall is, "Are you very concerned about being the victim of crime or having a friend or family member become a victim?" And it was about 30% when we first asked this question in 1988. Then in 1994 it went all the way up to about 54%, 50%. In 1995 a slight slip, but basically the same level of concern.

Money for Retirement. You an see the graph just goes up. About half the people are very concerned about not having money for retirement. I think it is fair to say that this is a function of the current dispute over Social Security and Medicare.

Money for college. The same trend as above. In 1988, almost no concern; in 1995, 40% are very concerned.
Country's direction
Before we asked what most concerned people, we asked another one: "Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the direction the county is going in?" Seventy-three percent of the American people say that the country is going in the wrong direction. Twenty-three percent say the country is going in the right direction, and the others just don't know or don't care. But that 73% is a remarkable number, because going back to 1984 and 1988 you had overwhelmingly positive attitudes toward the direction this country was taking. In 1988, 57% of the people said that the country was moving in the right direction.

The issue is not who is right and who is wrong. The issue is how are you feeling today? Do you have a headache? The American people have a big headache. And we relate that headache to these particular issues. Things are not going well here. The American public is deeply concerned about their ability to sustain their lives, their lifestyles, and they are increasingly troubled by money problems, by the wages they earn. People are upset because some sixty-odd percent of them don't believe that the salaries they are earning are sufficient to give them the kind of lives that they want and need. Moreover, they don't see it getting any better in the future.

And this is happening, of course, at a time when the economy itself is not one of the principle issues that they are talking about. They are talking about gut stuff. They are talking about what is happening to thee and me. They are not talking about what the President's priorities should be.

When you lump together all concerns about economics, including jobs and wages, then the economy goes up to 21% as a public concern. Complaints about the political system and Washington politics, however, have never been as high as they are now. Seventeen percent of the public says that politics as usual in Washington, D.C., is one of the top three reasons that they are unhappy about the system. [See Table: Top Five Sources of Dissatisfaction] Now I think people in this room will understand why that is. The Republican revolution, along with the media coverage it generated, have made the system itself, the structure of the system itself, an issue about which people are concerned.
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

President's Approval

I should tell you that the President's approval rating holds at 48%. In fact it has improved a bit. He has been stable since last April when he was at a low of 41% in The Times Mirror surveys. He is up seven points since that period.

Of course the strong Republican groups -- the Enterprisers and the Moralists -- are very low in their approval of Clinton. 13% in the Enterprisers, 23% for the Moralists. But the Libertarians -- a pro-business group, leave-me-alone people, I-will-take-care-of-myself-and-I-won't-bother-you types -- they give Clinton 39% approval. That is 8% of the population, an affluent, well-educated group that is going to go to the polls and vote. The President is doing extremely well with what is basically a conservative voting group.
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

Approval for GOP

Knowing this is the Kennedy school you may be interested in the Republican leadership's approval rating. They are at 35%. Fifty-one percent disapprove of the Republican leadership or the direction of their policy. That is an extraordinary change since early 1995.

Among people who are normally Democrats, and who in the past have been somewhat divided by Bill Clinton, at least 75% of them are saying, he is doing a good job. When you ask that same Democratic grouping whether they approve of the GOP Congressional leadership policies, you get nothing (Seculars,12%; New Democrats, 19%; New Dealers, 9%; Partisan Poor, 10%). If you go to the Republican grouping and the Independents, they give Clinton higher marks than the GOP gets. So what we are seeing at least for the moment is a rallying around the Democratic President among his party members, and, this is the significant thing, among two independent group and one group of highly motivated Republicans. There is a split. No one is going to know and shouldn't be able to tell you what it means, but there is very definitely an observable split, a significant split in the Republican party. Or I should say in the two Republican parties.
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

Predicting Election '96


In 1991, a year before the last presidential election, the way people regarded the state of the nation was closely related to the way they regarded the President, to whether or not they would vote for him or whether they approved of his policies. In 1995, the day before yesterday, as a matter of fact, there is not much difference at all between those who are satisfied with the state of the nation and those who are going to vote for the President. Forty-two percent will vote for Clinton if they are satisfied; 27% of those who are dissatisfied will still give him their vote. The same thing goes for Independents: 24% will vote for Clinton if they are satisfied with the country; 29% if they are dissatisfied.

The country does not blame Bill Clinton. Seven percent blame Bill Clinton for the fact that they think the country is going the wrong direction. Thirty-five percent blame the Republican leadership in Congress. And 27% have enough common sense to say they blame the people themselves!

Now I don't mean to imply that this means that Bill Clinton should start painting the bedroom of the White House for another four-year stay. That is not what this says. What this says is people are in a bad mood. They are unhappy about a lot of things, left, right and the middle, and nobody knows what is going to happen in 1996 right now. Who knows what the same people we polled are going to think next week. This is a roller coaster ride.
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

Afterword

1996 Voting Blocs and the Typology

The typology gives us an opportunity to look at the structure of various sectors of the electorate. As was evident in the 1994 elections, the sum of an electoral group is often more powerful than its parts. In 1994, white males, talk radio listeners and conservative Christians turned out to vote in higher numbers and voted with greater unanimity than other voting blocs, and thus their impact on the election was substantial.

Some of the key voting blocs to watch in 1996 will be primary voters, talk radio listeners, and the Christian Right. The overwhelming majority of Republican primary voters (those who say they are "very likely" to vote in a primary in their state next year) are clustered in two typology groups. Forty percent of likely GOP primary voters are upscale, economically conservative Enterprisers, and an equal percentage (39%) are socially conservative, middle class Moralists. The battle over the Republican presidential nomination will likely be waged between these two GOP voting blocs, who at this point do not agree in their assessments of the Republican congressional agenda or the current Republican presidential field.

In recent years, talk radio has become a powerful tool for political expression and coalition building. The regular talk radio audience remains largely conservative. More than 20% of those who listen to talk radio regularly are Enterprisers; 14% are Moralists. However, more Democrats appear to be tuning into talk radio this year than last. In October 1994, just weeks before the November elections, only 7% of the regular talk radio audience consisted of New Democrats; today that number has nearly doubled to 15%. This moderate, middle class Democratic group makes up about 12% of the electorate and will be an important group to watch in 1996.

The Christian right could be another important swing group in the 1996 elections, particularly during the Republican nomination process. Nearly half (47%) of those Republicans who identify themselves as born again or Evangelical Christians, can be found among the ranks of the religious and culturally conservative Moralists. Forty percent are Enterprisers. Again these two groups have increasingly divergent attitudes toward their party's social and political agenda. This schism may weaken the electoral strength of the Christian Right in the 1996 election.
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]



TABLES

The Times Mirror Typology

(Percent of adult population)

July 1994Oct 1994April 1995Oct 1995
Enterprisers10121513
Moralists18171216
Libertarians4668
New Economy
Independents19l41713
Embittered7679
Bystanders89118
Seculars9888
New Democrats1110912
NewDealers7878
Partisan Poor71085
100100100100

[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

Top Five Sources of Dissatisfaction

(Based on Those Dissatisfied in Percentages)

Question: What things are you most dissatisfied with?
Health
Care
System		EconomyCrimePolitical
System		Taxes
Too
High
Total2121201714
Sex
Male1722152117
Female2521251310
Race
White2119201714
Non-white2133221112
Black2137211310
Age
Under 3020202279
30-492026191619
50-692217212312
65+261622207
Education
College Grad.2222202214
Some College2222241516
High School Grad.2221201413
H.S. Grad1818171711
Health
Care
System		EconomyCrimePolitical
System		Taxes
Too
High
Family Income
$75,000+1823191716
$50,000-$74,9991521221719
$30,000-$49,9992220212015
$20,000-$29,9991923271414
$20,0002522151310
Region
East2826181614
Midwest2120181816
South1918221611
West1922231613
Community Size
Large City2225231314
Suburb2423241814
Small City/Town2020201812
Rural Area2019171615
Religious Pref
Total WhiteProtestant1916211813
White Prot. Evangelical1614181611
White Prot. Non-Evangelical2218232115
White Catholic2625231315
Party ID
Republican1421201413
Democrat3022251312
Independent2122162215
Health
Care
System		EconomyCrimePolitical
System		Taxes
Too
High
1992 Vote
Clinton2822221711
Bush1720221715
Perot1923182016
1994 Congressional Vote
Democrat3121211812
Republican1319241816
Didn't Vote2122191413
Presidential Approval
Approve2723231411
Disapprove1721191815
No Opinion2016161614
GOP Congress Approval
Approve1522241613
Disapprove2622191714
No Opinion2017181714
Listens To Talk Radio
Regularly2124192116
Sometimes2023191713
Rarely/Never2219221413
Health
Care
System		EconomyCrimePolitical
System		Taxes
Too
High
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

Top Five Issues Public Wants Candidates to Discuss

Question: What one issue would you most like to hear presidential candidates talk about?

Health Care
Reform		EconomyBalance
Budget		CrimeMoral
Crisis
Total20141498
Sex
Male15161787
Female241210109
Race
White20141599
Non-white21115105
Black2294107
Age
Under 3017129106
30-49181513910
50-6922131497
65+23152098
Education
College Grad.18181689
Some College17131599
High School Grad.211213107
<H.S.Grad22129109
Health Care
Reform		EconomyBalance
Budget		CrimeMoral
Crisis
Family Income
$75,000+1419241111
$50,000-$74,999161916610
$30,000-$49,999181315108
$20,000-$29,999231214107
$20,0002212897
Region
East23151288
Midwest191314108
South2113121010
West15161687
Community Size
Large City201411106
Suburb171916107
Small City/Town201314810
Rural Area20101298
Health Care
Reform		EconomyBalance
Budget		CrimeMoral
Crisis
Religious Preference
Total White Protestant201316810
White Prot. Evangelical191015816
White Prot. Non-Evangelical20151785
White Catholic221615106
Party ID
Republican131518813
Democrat27119116
Independent19151496
1992 Vote
Clinton2713995
Bush111622813
Perot1617211011
1994Congressional Vote
Democrat261513104
Republican121520814
Didn't Vote21121097
Health Care
Reform		EconomyBalance
Budget		CrimeMoral
Crisis
Presidential Approval
Approve261411115
Disapprove141418813
No Opinion1311864
GOP Congress Approval
Approve131520811
Disapprove251410107
No Opinion15118108
Listens To Talk Radio
Regularly19171689
Sometimes20121489
Rarely/Never201412107
TYPOLOGY GROUPS
Enterprisers71426815
Moralists16I G14913
Libertarians10261945
New Economy Independents281012116
Embittered17161368
Bystanders14108117
Seculars291510104
New Democrats2614798
New Dealers29711104
Partisan Poor271011114
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

Potential Voting Blocs

All
Voters		Likely GOP
Primary
Voters		Talk
Radio
Listeners		Christian
Right
Enterprisers13402240
Moralists16391447
Libertarians812103
New Economy Indeps.13493
Embittered9293
Bystanders8134
Seculars8--8--
New Democrats12215--
NewDealers8--6--
Partisan Poor5--4--
100100100100
[CONTENTS] [THEME KEY]

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